Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii About the Companion Site xix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Risk in Our Modern Society 1 1.2 Important Trends 2 1.3 Major Accidents 4 1.4 History of Risk Assessment 4 1.5 Applications of Risk Assessment 9 1.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation 11 1.7 Problems 12 References 13 2 The Words of Risk Analysis 15 2.

1 Introduction 15 2.2 Risk 16 2.3 What Can Go Wrong? 20 2.4 What is the Likelihood? 38 2.5 What are the Consequences? 44 2.6 Additional Terms 49 2.7 Problems 54 References 56 3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 59 3.1 Introduction 59 3.

2 Risk Assessment Process 60 3.3 Risk Assessment Report 76 3.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation 81 3.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment 82 3.6 Problems 83 References 84 4 Study Object and Limitations 87 4.1 Introduction 87 4.2 Study Object 87 4.3 Operating Context 91 4.

4 System Modeling and Analysis 92 4.5 Complexity 95 4.6 Problems 97 References 98 5 Risk Acceptance 99 5.1 Introduction 99 5.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria 99 5.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria 106 5.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans 114 5.5 Closure 115 5.

6 Problems 115 References 117 6 Measuring Risk 121 6.1 Introduction 121 6.2 Risk Metrics 121 6.3 Measuring Risk to People 123 6.4 Risk Matrices 148 6.5 Reduction in Life Expectancy 154 6.6 Choice and Use of Risk Metrics 156 6.7 Risk Metrics for Other Assets 158 6.

8 Problems 159 References 163 7 Risk Management 167 7.1 Introduction 167 7.2 Scope, Context, and Criteria 170 7.3 Risk Assessment 170 7.4 Risk Treatment 171 7.5 Communication and Consultation 172 7.6 Monitoring and Review 173 7.7 Recording and Reporting 174 7.

8 Stakeholders 175 7.9 Risk and Decision-Making 176 7.10 Safety Legislation 179 7.11 Problems 180 References 180 8 Accident Models 183 8.1 Introduction 183 8.2 Accident Classification 183 8.3 Accident Investigation 188 8.4 Accident Causation 188 8.

5 Accident Models 190 8.6 Energy and Barrier Models 193 8.7 Sequential Accident Models 195 8.8 Epidemiological Accident Models 201 8.9 Event Causation and Sequencing Models 208 8.10 Systemic Accident Models 213 8.11 Combining Accident Models 228 8.12 Problems 229 References 230 9 Data for Risk Analysis 235 9.

1 Types of Data 235 9.2 Quality and Applicability of Data 238 9.3 Data Sources 239 9.4 Expert Judgment 250 9.5 Data Dossier 254 9.6 Problems 254 References 257 10 Hazard Identification 259 10.1 Introduction 259 10.2 Checklist Methods 263 10.

3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis 266 10.4 Job Safety Analysis 278 10.5 FMECA 287 10.6 HAZOP 295 10.7 STPA 306 10.8 SWIFT 316 10.9 Comparing Semiquantitative Methods 322 10.10 Master Logic Diagram 322 10.

11 Change Analysis 324 10.12 Hazard Log 327 10.13 Problems 331 References 335 11 Causal and Frequency Analysis 339 11.1 Introduction 339 11.2 Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis 341 11.3 Fault Tree Analysis 344 11.4 Bayesian Networks 370 11.5 Markov Methods 384 11.

6 Problems 396 References 400 12 Development of Accident Scenarios 401 12.1 Introduction 401 12.2 Event Tree Analysis 402 12.3 Event Sequence Diagrams 426 12.4 Cause-Consequence Analysis 426 12.5 Hybrid Causal Logic 428 12.6 Escalation Problems 429 12.7 Consequence Models 429 12.

8 Problems 431 References 435 13 Dependent Failures and Events 437 13.1 Introduction 437 13.2 Dependent Failures and Events 437 13.3 Dependency in Accident Scenarios 439 13.4 Cascading Failures 441 13.5 Common-Cause Failures 442 13.6 ? -Factor Model 452 13.7 Binomial Failure Rate Model 456 13.

8 Multiple Greek Letter Model 457 13.9 ? -Factor Model 459 13.10 Multiple ? -Factor Model 461 13.11 Problems 461 References 462 14 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 465 14.1 Introduction 465 14.2 Barriers and Barrier Classification 466 14.3 Barrier Management 474 14.4 Barrier Properties 476 14.

5 Safety-Instrumented Systems 477 14.6 Hazard-Barrier Matrices 487 14.7 Safety Barrier Diagrams 488 14.8 Bow-Tie Diagrams 490 14.9 Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis 490 14.10 Layer of Protection Analysis 493 14.11 Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis 502 14.12 Systematic Identification and Evaluation of Risk Reduction Measures 512 14.

13 Problems 518 References 520 15 Human Reliability Analysis 525 15.1 Introduction 525 15.2 Task Analysis 536 15.3 Human Error Identification 543 15.4 HRA Methods 552 15.5 Problems 573 References 574 16 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 579 16.1 Introduction 579 16.2 Decisions About Risk 581 16.

3 Aspects of Risk to Consider 583 16.4 Risk Indicators 585 16.5 Risk Modeling 594 16.6 Operational Risk Analysis - Updating the QRA 596 16.7 MIRMAP 598 16.8 Problems 601 References 602 17 Security Assessment 605 17.1 Introduction 605 17.2 Main Elements of Security Assessment 608 17.

3 Industrial Control and Safety Systems 615 17.4 Security Assessment 617 17.5 Security Assessment Methods 625 17.6 Application Areas 626 17.7 Problems 627 References 628 18 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 631 18.1 Introduction 631 18.2 Phases in the Life Cycle 631 18.3 Comments Applicable to all Phases 634 18.

4 Feasibility and Concept Selection 635 18.5 Preliminary Design 637 18.6 Detailed Design and Construction 639 18.7 Operation and Maintenance 641 18.8 Major Modifications 641 18.9 Decommissioning and Removal 643 18.10 Problems 643 References 643 19 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 645 19.1 Introduction 645 19.

2 Uncertainty 647 19.3 Categories of Uncertainty 648 19.4 Contributors to Uncertainty 651 19.5 Uncertainty Propagation 656 19.6 Sensitivity Analysis 661 19.7 Problems 663 References 664 20 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 667 20.1 Introduction 667 20.2 Defense and Defense Industry 668 20.

3 Nuclear Power Industry 670 20.4 Process Industry 674 20.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 678 20.6 Space Industry 681 20.7 Aviation 683 20.8 Railway Transport 685 20.9 Marine Transport 686 20.10 Machinery Systems 689 20.

11 Food Safety 690 20.12 Other Application Areas 692 20.13 Closure 695 References 697 Appendix A Elements of Probability Theory 701 A.1 Introduction 701 A.2 Outcomes and Events 701 A.3 Probability 706 A.4 Random Variables 710 A.5 Some Specific Distributions 718 A.

6 Point and Interval Estimation 728 A.7 Bayesian Approach 732 A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach 733 References 739 Appendix B Acronyms 741 Author Index 747 Subject Index 753.