chapter 1 End of the Age of Silicon A revolution is coming. In 2019 and 2020, two bombshells rocked the world of science. Two groups announced that they had achieved quantum supremacy, the fabled point at which a radically new type of computer, called a quantum computer, could decisively outperform an ordinary digital supercomputer on specific tasks. This heralded an upheaval that can change the entire computing landscape and overturn every aspect of our daily life. First, Google revealed that their Sycamore quantum computer could solve a mathematical problem in 200 seconds that would take 10,000 years on the world''s fastest supercomputer. According to MIT''s Technology Review, Google called this a major breakthrough. They likened it to the launch of Sputnik or the Wright brothers'' first flight. It was "the threshold of a new era of machines that would make today''s mightiest computer look like an abacus.
" Then the Quantum Innovation Institute at the Chinese Academy of Sciences went even further. They claimed their quantum computer was 100 trillion times faster than an ordinary supercomputer. IBM vice president Bob Sutor, commenting on the meteoric rise of quantum computers, states flatly, "I think it''s going to be the most important computing technology of this century." Quantum computers have been called the "Ultimate Computer," a decisive leap in technology with profound implications for the entire world. Instead of computing on tiny transistors, they compute on the tiniest possible object, the atoms themselves, and hence can easily surpass the power of our greatest supercomputer. Quantum computers might usher in an entirely new age for the economy, society, and our way of life. But quantum computers are more than just another powerful computer. They are a new type of computer that can tackle problems that digital computers can never solve, even with an infinite amount of time.
For example, digital computers can never accurately calculate how atoms combine to create crucial chemical reactions, especially those that make life possible. Digital computers can only compute on digital tape, consisting of a series of 0s and 1s, which are too crude to describe the delicate waves of electrons dancing deep inside a molecule. For example, when tediously computing the paths taken by a mouse in a maze, a digital computer has to painfully analyze each possible path, one after the other. A quantum computer, however, simultaneously analyzes all possible paths at the same time, with lightning speed. This in turn has heightened an intense rivalry between competing computer giants, which are all racing to create the world''s most powerful quantum computer. In 2021, IBM unveiled its own quantum computer, called the Eagle, which has taken the lead, with more computing power than all previous models. But these records are like pie crusts--they are made to be broken. Given the profound implications of this revolution, it is not surprising that many of the world''s leading corporations have invested heavily in this new technology.
Google, Microsoft, Intel, IBM, Rigetti, and Honeywell are all building quantum computer prototypes. The leaders of Silicon Valley realize that they must keep pace with this revolution or be left in the dust. IBM, Honeywell, and Rigetti Computing have put their first-generation quantum computers on the internet to whet the appetite of a curious public, so that people may gain their first direct exposure to quantum computation. One can experience this new quantum revolution firsthand by connecting to a quantum computer on the internet. For example, the "IBM Q Experience," launched in 2016, makes fifteen quantum computers available to the public via the internet for free. Samsung and JPMorgan Chase are among these users. Already, 2,000 people, from schoolchildren to professors, use them every month. Wall Street has taken a keen interest in this technology.
IonQ became the first major quantum computing company to go public, raising $600 million in its IPO in 2021. Even more startling, the rivalry is so intense that a new start-up, PsiQuantum, without any commercial prototype on the market or any track record of previous products, suddenly soared on Wall Street to a $3.1 billion valuation, with the ability to capture $665 million in funding almost overnight. Business analysts wrote that they had rarely seen anything like this, a new company riding the tide of feverish speculation and sensational headlines to such heights. Deloitte, the consulting and accounting firm, estimates that the market for quantum computers should reach hundreds of millions of dollars in the 2020s and tens of billions of dollars in the 2030s. No one knows when quantum computers will enter the commercial marketplace and alter the economic landscape, but predictions are being revised all the time to match the unprecedented speed of scientific discovery in this field. Christopher Savoie, CEO of Zapata Computing, speaking about the meteoric rise of quantum computers, says, "It''s no longer a matter of if, but when." Even the U.
S. Congress has expressed keen interest in helping jump-start this new quantum technology. Realizing that other nations have already generously funded research in quantum computers, in December 2018, Congress passed the National Quantum Initiative Act to provide seed money to help spark new research. It mandated the formation of two to five new National Quantum Information Science Research Centers, to be funded with $80 million annually. In 2021, the U.S. government also announced an investment of $625 million in quantum technologies, to be supervised by the Department of Energy. Giant corporations like Microsoft, IBM, and Lockheed Martin also contributed an additional $340 million to this project.
The Chinese and the U.S. are not the only ones using government funds to accelerate this technology. The U.K. government is now constructing the National Quantum Computing Centre, which will serve as a hub for research on quantum computing, to be built at the Harwell lab of the Science and Technology Facilities Council in Oxfordshire. Spurred on by the government, there were thirty quantum computer start-ups founded in the U.K.
by the end of 2019. Industry analysts recognize that it''s a trillion-dollar gamble. There are no guarantees in this highly competitive field. Despite the impressive technical achievements made by Google and others in recent years, a workable quantum computer that can solve real-world problems is still many years in the future. A mountain of hard work still lies before us. Some critics even claim it could be a wild-goose chase. But computer companies realize that unless they have a foot in the door, it might slam shut on them. Ivan Ostojic, a partner at consulting firm McKinsey, says, "Companies in the industries where quantum will have the greatest potential for complete disruption should get involved in quantum right now.
" Areas like chemistry, medicine, oil and gas, transportation, logistics, banking, pharmaceuticals, and cybersecurity are ripe for major change. He adds, "In principle, quantum will be relevant for all CIOs as it will accelerate solutions to a large range of problems. Those companies need to become owners of quantum capability." Vern Brownell, former CEO of D-Wave Systems, a Canadian quantum computing company, remarks, "We believe we''re right on the cusp of providing capabilities you can''t get with classical computing." Many scientists believe that we are now entering an entirely new era, with shock waves comparable to those created by the introduction of the transistor and the microchip. Companies without direct ties to computer production, like the automotive giant Daimler, which owns Mercedes-Benz, are already investing in this new technology, sensing that quantum computers may pave the way for new developments in their own industries. Julius Marcea, an executive with rival BMW, has written, "We are excited to investigate the transformative potential of quantum computing on the automotive industry and are committed to extending the limits of engineering performance." Other large companies, like Volkswagen and Airbus, have set up quantum computing divisions of their own to explore how this may revolutionize their business.
Pharmaceutical companies are also watching developments in this field intently, realizing that quantum computers may be able to simulate complex chemical and biological processes that are far beyond the capability of digital computers. Huge facilities devoted to testing millions of drugs may one day be replaced by "virtual laboratories" that test drugs in cyberspace. Some have feared that perhaps this might one day replace chemists. But Derek Lowe, who runs a blog about drug discovery, says, "It is not that machines are going to replace chemists. It''s that the chemists who use machines will replace those that don''t." Even the Large Hadron Collider outside Geneva, Switzerland, the biggest science machine in the world, which slams protons together at 14 trillion electron volts to re-create the conditions of the early universe, now uses quantum computers to help sift through mountains of data. In one second, they can analyze up to one trillion bytes generated by about one billion particle collisions. Perhaps one day quantum computers will unravel the secrets of the creation of the universe.
Quantum Supremacy Back in 2012, when physicist John Preskill of the California Institute of Technology first coined the term "quantum supremacy," many scientists shook their heads. It would take decades, if not centuries, they thought, before quant.