Introduction 1 Part 1: The Certainty of Uncertainty: Probability Basics 5 Chapter 1: The Probability in Everyday Life 7 Chapter 2: Coming to Terms with Probability 17 Chapter 3: Picturing Probability: Venn Diagrams, Tree Diagrams, and Bayes' Theorem 41 Part 2: Counting on Probability and Betting to Win 67 Chapter 4: Setting the Contingency Table with Probabilities 69 Chapter 5: Applying Counting Rules with Combinations and Permutations 79 Chapter 6: Against All Odds: Probability in Gaming 107 Part 3: From A to Binomial: Basic Probability Models 133 Chapter 7: Probability Distribution Basics 135 Chapter 8: Juggling Success and Failure with the Binomial Distribution 159 Chapter 9: The Normal (but Never Dull) Distribution 177 Chapter 10: Approximating a Binomial with a Normal Distribution 201 Chapter 11: Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem 213 Chapter 12: Estimating and Doing Hypothesis Tests with Probability 233 Part 4: Taking It Up a Notch: Advanced Probability Models 245 Chapter 13: Working with the Poisson (a Nonpoisonous) Distribution 247 Chapter 14: Covering All the Angles of the Geometric Distribution 263 Chapter 15: Making a Positive out of the Negative Binomial Distribution 273 Chapter 16: Remaining Calm about the Hypergeometric Distribution 287 Part 5: For the Hotshots: Continuous Probability Models 299 Chapter 17: Staying in Line with the Continuous Uniform Distribution 301 Chapter 18: The Exponential (and Its Relationship to Poisson) Exposed 315 Part 6: The Part of Tens 329 Chapter 19: Ten Steps to a Better Probability Grade 331 Chapter 20: Top Ten (or So) Probability Mistakes 341 Appendix: Tables for Reference 351 Index 361.