How Important Are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?
How Important Are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?
Click to enlarge
Author(s): Rafiq, Sohrab
ISBN No.: 9781484358603
Pages: 27
Year: 201505
Format: Trade Paper
Price: $ 27.60
Dispatch delay: Dispatched between 7 to 15 days
Status: Available

This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-to-GDP ratio causes an increase in bond yields of a relatively modest 1-to-6 basis points. Shocks to growth expectations and risk aversion have been comparatively more successful in explaining the behavior of long-term rates. The findings imply that growth policies rather than long-run projections of fiscal outcomes may be more important in helping influence long-term borrowing costs.


To be able to view the table of contents for this publication then please subscribe by clicking the button below...
To be able to view the full description for this publication then please subscribe by clicking the button below...