Real estate shifts are easier to recognize than they are to acknowledge. One day job growth is beginning to stall and, seemingly overnight, vacancies are on the rise. Tenants start asking to downsize. Commercial property valuations level off. Negative news stories feed the worries of buyers and tenants. New development halts. Fear creeps in. Then, the market that was quietly losing ground goes into full retreat as tenant delinquencies turn into owner delinquencies and lenders sever lines of credit.

Rents go into a free fall as owners scavenge for income to offset a rising tide of red ink. Deals unravel. Buyers and tenants hunker down to wait for a steal. Bankruptcies mount. Eventually, big commercial real estate owners start selling their companies or simply close their doors. Credit freezes up. Banks begin to shut down. Sound familiar? If you've been in the business for any length of time, it should.

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