"Lichtman's book has gone through many editions because his 12 keys to predicting the next president all seem plausible influences on presidential election outcomes. To his credit, Lichtman (history, American Univ.) has called the outcome of every presidential election from 1984 to 2008. Yet some of his model's variables permit a bit of fudging. Two involve the relative "charisma" of the presidential candidates. Similar concerns arise regarding his variables "sustained social unrest," "scandal," and foreign/military "success" and "failure." Reliable measures of any of these "keys" are fraught with peril. This is the case regarding his 2012 prediction of an Obama victory.

For example, Lichtman says that neither the Tea Party nor Occupy Wall Street movements are a sign of sustained social unrest, but that remains a judgment call. Perhaps the best way to understand Lichtman's prior success is that he correctly defined some fuzzy factors for several elections. But given the ambiguity of several "keys," future predictions have considerable capacity for error. The book does not discover the Rosetta Stone of election forecasts, but instead reveals one scholar's able series of educated guesses. Summing Up: Recommended." -- Choice Reviews "Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business.

Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable. (Praise for a previous edition)" --William Schneider, Political Analyst, CNN "This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods. (Praise for a previous edition)" -- Publishers Weekly "Whether this is science or sorcery, informed citizens are presented with an entertaining and alternative method to those omnipresent pollsters. (Praise for a previous edition)" --William D. Pederson, Louisiana State University in Shreveport, Library Journal "Allan Lichtman's Predicting the Next President serves as an important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does.

there is no better book to read. (Praise for a previous edition)" --Charlie Cook, editor, The Cook Political Report, political analyst, National Journal and NBC News.