With The Keys to the White House, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election from 1860 through Clinton's 1992 defeat of Bush and reelection in 1996, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to know why Al Gore will be the next president should not miss this book.