Introduction Your mission, Jim, should you decide to accept it . So began every episode of the classic TV series Mission: Impossible, and what followed chronicled the execution of that week''s impossible mission. The missions were seldom literally impossible, though; careful planning, staffing, and use of the (seemingly unlimited) budget resulted in a satisfactory conclusion just before the deadline-- the final commercial. Today''s projects should also probably arrive on a tape that "will self-destruct in five seconds." Compared with project work done in the past, current projects are more time constrained, pose greater technical challenges, and rarely seem to have enough resources. All of this leads to increased project risk--culminating too often in the "impossible project." As a leader of complex projects, you need to know that techniques exist to better deal with risk in projects like yours. Used effectively, these processes will help you recognize and manage potential problems.

Often, they can make the difference between a project that is possible and one that is impossible. This is what Identifying and Managing Project Risk is about. Throughout this book, examples from modern projects show how to apply the ideas presented to meet the challenges you face. This is not a book of theories; it is based on data collected in the recent past from hundreds of complex projects worldwide. A database filled with this information, the Project Experience Risk Information Library (PERIL), forms much of the foundation for this book. These examples are used to identify sources of risk, and they demonstrate practical responses that do not always resort to brute force. The structure of the book also reflects the changes adopted in the most recent edition of the Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) from the Project Management Institute (PMI®, the professional society for project managers). The Risk section of the PMBOK® Guide is one of the key areas tested on the Project Management Professional (PMP®) certification examination administered by PMI.

This book is also consistent with the PMI® Practice Standard for Project Risk Management and the topics relevant to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP®) Certification. The first half of the book addresses risk identification, which relies heavily on thorough project definition and planning. The initial six chapters show the value of these activities in uncovering sources of risk. The remainder of the book covers the assessment and management of risk, at the detail (activity) level as well as at the project level and above. These chapters cover methods for assessing identified risks, establishing an overall risk plan for the project, making project adjustments, ongoing risk tracking, project closure, and the relationship between project risk management and program, portfolio, and enterprise risk management. It is especially easy on modern projects to convince yourself that there is little to be learned from the past and that established ideas and techniques "no longer apply to my project." Tempting though it is to wear these hindsight blinders, wise project managers realize that their chances of success are always improved when they take full advantage of what has gone before. Neither project management in general nor risk management in particular is all that new.

Broad principles and techniques for both have been successfully used for more than a century. Even though many lessons can be learned from current projects (as the PERIL database illustrates), there is also much to be absorbed from earlier work. As a graphic reminder of this connection, each chapter in this book concludes with a short description of how some of the principles discussed relate to a very large historical project: the construction of the Panama Canal. Taking a moment every so often to consider this remarkable feat of engineering reinforces the importance of good project management practices--and may provide some topical relief from what can be occasionally dry subject matter. Risk in projects comes from many sources, including two that are generally left out of even the better books on the subject: (1) the inadequate application (or even discouragement) of project management practices and (2) the all too common situation of wildly aggressive project objectives that are established without the backing of any realistic plan. These risks are related because only through adequate understanding of the work can you detect whether objectives are impossible, and only by using the information you develop can you hope to do anything about it. Identifying and Managing Project Risk is intended to help leaders of today''s complex projects (and their managers) successfully deliver on their commitments. Whether you develop products, provide services, create information technology solutions, or deal with complexity in other types of projects, you will find easy-to-follow, practical guidance to improve your management of project risk, along with effective practices for aligning your projects with reality.

You will learn how to succeed with seemingly impossible projects by reducing your risks with minimal incremental effort.