Acknowledgments xi CHAPTER 1 A Brief Introduction: The Ground Rules 1 My Objective 2 The Ground Rules 3 The Process 3 Basic Trading Systems 6 CHAPTER 2 The Idea 9 Begin at the Beginning 9 The Idea Must Match Your Trading Personality 11 I Need a Fast Payout 12 Withstanding the Test of Time 13 CHAPTER 3 Don''t Make It Complex 15 A Word about Noise 17 Integrated Solutions versus Building Blocks 18 More Rules, Fewer Opportunities, Less Success 19 CHAPTER 4 Why Should I Care about "Robust" If I''m Trading Only Apple? 21 Is It Robust? 22 Another Dimension 25 But Which Parameter Value Do I Trade? 27 Multiple Time Frames 28 Is One Trend Method Better Than Another? 29 CHAPTER 5 Less Is More 33 Volatility Cuts Both Ways 34 Bull Markets Happen When Everyone Is in Denial 36 CHAPTER 6 If You''re a Trend Follower, Don''t Use Profit-Taking or Stops 39 The Dynamics of a Trend Strategy 42 It''s Getting Harder to Find the Trend 42 The Eurodollar Trend 43 Where Do You Place Your Stop? 45 What about Profit-Taking? 46 Entering on a Pullback 47 Which Is the Best Trend-Following Method? 48 CHAPTER 7 Take Your Profit If You''re a Short-Term Trader 51 What''s Bad for the Trend Is Good for the Short-Term Trader 53 If You Can''t Use Stops for Trend Following, Can You Use Them for Short-Term Trading? 55 There Are Always Exceptions 56 CHAPTER 8 Searching for the Perfect System 59 Looking at the Results 61 How Much Data and How Many Trades Are Enough? 62 So, Which Parameter Value Do I Pick? 63 CHAPTER 9 Equal Opportunity Trading 65 Calculating Position Size 66 Avoid Low-Priced Stocks 66 True Volatility-Adjusting Doesn''t Work for a Portfolio of Stocks 67 Risk in Futures 67 Target Risk 68 Calculate the Rate of Return for the Portfolio 69 Assigning Risk to Your Portfolio 72 Multiple Strategies Are More Important 73 Not So Easy for the Institutions 75 Too Much of a Good Thing Can Be Bad 75 CHAPTER 10 Testing--The Fork in the Road 79 Let the Computer Solve It for You 81 How Do You Evaluate the Results? 83 What''s Feedback? 84 Hidden Danger 86 Forgotten History 86 Use True Costs 87 Use Dirty Data 89 Back-Adjusted and Split-Adjusted Data 91 The Different Performance Measures 92 Interpreting the Ratio 92 Not Everyone Uses the Information Ratio 93 Number of Trades 94 Expectations 94 CHAPTER 11 Beating It into Submission 97 Fixing Losing Periods 97 Use the Average Results 99 Squeezing the Life Out of a System 101 Generalizing the Rules 105 CHAPTER 12 More on Futures 107 Leverage 108 Conversion Factors for Calculating Returns 109 Don''t Forget FX 110 FX Quotes 111 Real Diversification 113 The Life Cycle of a Commodity Market 115 CHAPTER 13 I Don''t Want No Stinkin'' Risk 117 A Clear Plan 119 Avoid Low-Priced Stocks 120 Volatility Over 100%? 121 Don''t Trade When Volatility Is Very High 122 Sidestepping Price Shocks 122 Portfolio Drawdown 123 Business Risk 124 Gearing Back Up 125 CHAPTER 14 Picking the Best Stocks (and Futures Markets) for Your Portfolio 127 Asking Too Much 127 The Practical Solution 128 Ranking Success 130 Rotation 132 CHAPTER 15 Matching the Strategy to the Market 133 Noise for Stocks 134 Noise for ETFs 136 Noise for Futures 136 CHAPTER 16 Constructing a Trend Strategy 139 The Trend 140 Buying and Selling Rules 141 First Tests 141 Costs 143 Expectations 143 Satisfying the First Milestone 144 Profit-Taking 146 Volatility Filter 148 Combining Rules 149 Multiple Entries and Exits 150 More Markets, More Robustness 151 Stabilizing the Risk 152 Do It Yourself 153 CHAPTER 17 Constructing an Intraday Trading Strategy 155 The Time Frame 156 Outline 157 Deciding on the Strategy 158 Choosing a Strategy 158 Directional or Mean Reverting 159 The Basic Rules 160 The Breakout Rule 161 Profit Taking and Extreme Volatility 162 What About the Trend? 163 CHAPTER 18 Summary 167 Resources 169 System Development Platforms 169 Blogs 170 Periodicals 171 Perry Kaufman Websites 172 Index 173.