Theory and Foundations Uncertainty and the Role of Probability in Cost Analysis Introduction and Historical Perspective The Problem Space Presenting Cost as a Probability Distribution Benefits of Cost Uncertainty Analysis Concepts of Probability Theory Introduction Sample Spaces and Events Interpretations and Axioms of Probability Conditional Probability Bayes'' Rule Distributions and the Theory of Expectation Random Variables and Probability Distributions Expectation of a Random Variable Probability Inequalities Useful in Cost Analysis Cost Analysis Perspective Special Distributions for Cost Uncertainty Analysis Trapezoidal Distribution Beta Distribution Normal Distribution Lognormal Distribution Specifying Continuous Probability Distributions Functions of Random Variables and Their Application to Cost Uncertainty Analysis Introduction Linear Combinations of Random Variables Central Limit Theorem and a Cost Perspective Transformations of Random Variables Mellin Transform and Its Application to Cost Functions System Cost Uncertainty Analysis Work Breakdown Structures Analytical Framework Monte Carlo Simulation Modeling Cost and Schedule Uncertainties: An Application of Joint Probability Theory Introduction Joint Probability Models for Cost-Schedule Summary Practical Considerations and Applications Elements of Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Review Introduction Cost as Probability Distribution Monte Carlo Simulation and Method of Moments Distribution Summary Correlation: A Critical Consideration Introduction Correlation Matters Valuing Correlation Summary Building Statistical Cost Estimating Models Introduction Classical Statistical Regression General Error Regression Method Summary Mathematics of Cost Improvement Curves Introduction Learning Curve Theories Production Cost Models Built by Single-Step Regression Summary Enhanced Scenario-Based Method Introduction Nonstatistical eSBM Statistical eSBM Historical Data for eSBM Summary Cost Uncertainty Analysis Practice Points Treating Cost as a Random Variable Risk versus Uncertainty Subjective Probability Assessments Subjectivity in Systems Engineering and Analysis Problems Correlation Capturing Cost-Schedule Uncertainties Distribution Function of a System''s Total Cost Benefits of Cost Uncertainty Analysis Establishing a Cost and Schedule Risk Baseline Determining Cost Reserve Conducting Risk Reduction Trade-Off Analyses Documenting the Cost Uncertainty Analysis Management Perspectives Collected Works of Dr. Stephen A. Book Textbooks Journal Publications Conference Presentations and Proceedings Appendices Index Exercises and References appear at the end of each chapter. amp;lt;BR>Trapezoidal Distribution Beta Distribution Normal Distribution Lognormal Distribution Specifying Continuous Probability Distributions Functions of Random Variables and Their Application to Cost Uncertainty Analysis Introduction Linear Combinations of Random Variables Central Limit Theorem and a Cost Perspective Transformations of Random Variables Mellin Transform and Its Application to Cost Functions System Cost Uncertainty Analysis Work Breakdown Structures Analytical Framework Monte Carlo Simulation Modeling Cost and Schedule Uncertainties: An Application of Joint Probability Theory Introduction Joint Probability Models for Cost-Schedule Summary Practical Considerations and Applications Elements of Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Review Introduction Cost as Probability Distribution Monte Carlo Simulation and Method of Moments Distribution Summary Correlation: A Critical Consideration Introduction Correlation Matters Valuing Correlation Summary Building Statistical Cost Estimating Models Introduction Classical Statistical Regression General Error Regression Method Summary Mathematics of Cost Improvement Curves Introduction Learning Curve Theories Production Cost Models Built by Single-Step Regression Summary Enhanced Scenario-Based Method Introduction Nonstatistical eSBM Statistical eSBM Historical Data for eSBM Summary Cost Uncertainty Analysis Practice Points Treating Cost as a Random Variable Risk versus Uncertainty Subjective Probability Assessments Subjectivity in Systems Engineering and Analysis Problems Correlation Capturing Cost-Schedule Uncertainties Distribution Function of a System''s Total Cost Benefits of Cost Uncertainty Analysis Establishing a Cost and Schedule Risk Baseline Determining Cost Reserve Conducting Risk Reduction Trade-Off Analyses Documenting the Cost Uncertainty Analysis Management Perspectives Collected Works of Dr. Stephen A. Book Textbooks Journal Publications Conference Presentations and Proceedings Appendices Index Exercises and References appear at the end of each chapter. ;lt;/P> Practical Considerations and Applications Elements of Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Review Introduction Cost as Probability Distribution Monte Carlo Simulation and Method of Moments Distribution Summary Correlation: A Critical Consideration Introduction Correlation Matters Valuing Correlation Summary Building Statistical Cost Estimating Models Introduction Classical Statistical Regression General Error Regression Method Summary Mathematics of Cost Improvement Curves Introduction Learning Curve Theories Production Cost Models Built by Single-Step Regression Summary Enhanced Scenario-Based Method Introduction Nonstatistical eSBM Statistical eSBM Historical Data for eSBM Summary Cost Uncertainty Analysis Practice Points Treating Cost as a Random Variable Risk versus Uncertainty Subjective Probability Assessments Subjectivity in Systems Engineering and Analysis Problems Correlation Capturing Cost-Schedule Uncertainties Distribution Function of a System''s Total Cost Benefits of Cost Uncertainty Analysis Establishing a Cost and Schedule Risk Baseline Determining Cost Reserve Conducting Risk Reduction Trade-Off Analyses Documenting the Cost Uncertainty Analysis Management Perspectives Collected Works of Dr. Stephen A.

Book Textbooks Journal Publications Conference Presentations and Proceedings Appendices Index Exercises and References appear at the end of each chapter. Enhanced Scenario-Based Method Introduction Nonstatistical eSBM Statistical eSBM Historical Data for eSBM Summary Cost Uncertainty Analysis Practice Points Treating Cost as a Random Variable Risk versus Uncertainty Subjective Probability Assessments Subjectivity in Systems Engineering and Analysis Problems Correlation Capturing Cost-Schedule Uncertainties Distribution Function of a System''s Total Cost Benefits of Cost Uncertainty Analysis Establishing a Cost and Schedule Risk Baseline Determining Cost Reserve Conducting Risk Reduction Trade-Off Analyses Documenting the Cost Uncertainty Analysis Management Perspectives Collected Works of Dr. Stephen A. Book Textbooks Journal Publications Conference Presentations and Proceedings Appendices Index Exercises and References appear at the end of each chapter. en A. Book Textbooks Journal Publications Conference Presentations and Proceedings Appendices Index Exercises and References appear at the end of each chapter.